Turning up the Heat: Summer 2026
For the last few years, global summer heat has been getting hotter and hotter on average. 2023 and 2025 are considered the hottest years yet since consistent record keeping began in 1850, and, according to Climate Data Canada, there is a 99% chance that 2026 will surpass them. More disturbingly, ECCC's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis predicts that 2026 to 2030 will be the hottest recorded 5-year period, making the last few sweltering summers look like child's play.
While Climate Data Canada goes into details about why this is happening, I'm going to focus here on what to expect and some ideas on how to prepare for life in the frying pan.
If you live in a city, it's especially important to be aware of the dangerous urban heat island effect and how it can impact you. If you're not already familiar, this is the phenomenon where paved surfaces, coupled with densely packed buildings and vehicles generating their own heat, make it challenging for heat to escape as it would in a natural system. This can cause an extreme increase in temperature compared to places with inherent heat reduction mechanisms, such as forests. This issue got its name because, when you look at an area experiencing the urban heat island effect on a thermally categorized map, it is a red hot anomaly compared to cooler surrounding areas. After prolonged exposure to direct sun, paved surfaces within the heat island can be up to 27-50° hotter than the air around it, and remain about 12° hotter than areas just beyond the island after the sun goes down.
How can this be managed, you may ask? Well, one effective means of reducing the urban heat island effect in cities is to plant more greenspaces. The cooling effect associated with this generally has to do with a plant's ability to release moisture into the surrounding area after the uptake of water in a process called transpiration, though large trees can additionally provide the benefit of shade. If you have access to a balcony or a yard, incorporating more heat-tolerant plants can help you reduce the effect in your direct vicinity. On a larger scale, advocating for your city to invest in more public greenspaces in the coming years based on these predictions may benefit you and your neighbours in the long term.
On the topic of planting vegetation, gardeners will likely have some very unhappy salad greens during the peak of summer over the next few years. Planting cool loving crops or ornamentals under shaded areas, or during cooler seasons, is likeliest to yield you the best results. In turn, if you want to grow your own food this summer, stick to crops and varieties that are known to be heat resistant, like certain tomatoes and zucchinis, and incorporate strategies like cooling mulches to keep the roots protected from hot soil and water loss.
If you live in a rural area, similarly, mature ecosystems with trees and shrubs that offer shade and microclimate cooling action are going to consistently be a more pleasant temperature than flat, open, deforested fields.With that in mind, if you live in an area prone to fires, dense forests are not necessarily your friend. Fireproofing of homes is becoming increasingly popular and necessary in many parts of the country. This can involve using specific, fire resistant materials in and around your home, maintaining distance between vegetation and your house, installation of sprinklers, and other methods to protect against wildfires. Monitor radars as wildfires inevitably spread. Even if you haven't been directly affected in the past, these are unprecedented times, and staying vigilant is crucial.
Pet owners (or animal lovers who host transient wildlife in their yards), may like to consider providing for frequent access to clean water and cooling spaces to protect furry or feathered friends from heat-related malaise. When incorporating cooling spaces around your residence, it is best to avoid or cover dark surfaces and certain materials (for example, stone) that readily absorb and retain heat.
For those expecting to work outdoors this summer, wearing long sleeves and pants to protect your skin from burning can keep you safe from getting sick during the hottest of days. Drinking lots of water, monitoring for signs of heat sickness, and encouraging your employer to allow you to shift your work to the coolest times of day are all considerations to keep in mind going into the season.
Though we're still donning our coats, gloves, and toques today, the time will soon come where that feels like a distant memory. To not let these intense conditions bog you down, pay attention, prepare yourself, and fortify your surroundings with the expectation the heat will keep getting turned up. Encourage your local politicians to think similarly about the coming years; it is unlikely this will be a passing phase.