Going Down the Groundhog Burrow
February 2nd. The day where a groundhog's behaviour determines how quickly spring will arrive.
To those who are unfamiliar with the tradition, this may sound a bit strange. But, as it turns out, the use of animals for forecasting weather patterns seems to be much more common than one might think. Badgers, bears, and even hedgehogs have appeared in history and folklore as predictors of long-term weather patterns, largely in association with the Christian feast day Candlemas.
The story of our modern day groundhog meteorologists appears to have begun in Pennsylvania in the mid-1800s. On February 2nd, 1840, groundhog day was being observed by certain German communities within the state, according to a diaristic account. Around 40 years later, in the 1880s, more official reports of a groundhog at Gobbler's Knob being "consulted" for its wisdom emerged. In the late 1890s, after a brief stint where a lodge took over Groundhog Day celebrations with an emphasis on hunting and serving groundhog meat (thank goodness we don't do that to our weather forecasters anymore), a more official Groundhog Club was formed. This club is still in existence, and is responsible for Punxsutawney's annual Groundhog Day events that draw in many locals and tourists alike.
Groundhog Day became popularized on a more global scale after the release of the 1993 eponymous film, where Bill Murray became stuck in a time loop, repeatedly making questionable decisions (some of which involved Punxsutawney Phil) until his character morally progressed.
Since the caricature of Punxsutawney Phil was conceived, many locations have followed suit with their own versions. Most of these are not so different from Phil; Ontario's own Wiarton Willie, Quebec's Fred la marmotte, Manitoba Merv, and Saskatchewan's Balzac Billy are just a few of Canada's beloved groundhogs. Deviating from the traditional critter, Vancouver Island boasts some wild marmots as its prognosticators. Alongside the groundhog Shubenacadie Sam, Nova Scotians take their notes from Lucy the Lobster. Lucy has the dual task of also welcoming in the Lobster Crawl, a month-long festival celebrating the peak of lobster season with a variety of events, many of which encourage dining on lobsters. Maybe we are still eating our weather forecasters, after all.
Moving on - is there any truth at all to these creatures being able to predict an early spring? Luckily, some dedicated researchers right here at Lakehead University took it upon themselves to answer that, statistically. In the most comprehensive study that appears to have ever been performed on the topic, Biology Chair and Associate Professor Dr. Rennie's lab found that these groundhogs' predictions are "no better than chance".
Perhaps unlikely, it is possible that a long time ago, predictions based on this sort of animal behaviour could have been more scientifically meaningful. Though, if I've learned anything from my brief time researching, it's that the meaning that can be found in Groundhog Day has more to do with connecting to the community, a shared excitement for spring, and curiously, a love for eating the weatherman's friends.